3609 Hwy 24 (Ocean) | Newport, North Carolina 28570

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 22, 2004

Todd Miller, executive director
252-393-8185
toddm@nccoast.org

NCCF Report Describes Greenhouse World

     Ocean, NC– Welcome to the Greenhouse World. It's a strange place where temperatures are rising at rates not seen in thousands of years, and the sea has reclaimed much of the famed Outer Banks. Exotic diseases, like West Nile virus, are common here, and devastating hurricanes are regular visitors. Kudzu and poison ivy cover this new world, and juicy backyard tomatoes are a rare delicacy. Welcome to coastal North Carolina of the 22nd century.
     Science fiction? The plot of the next summer blockbuster movie? Actually, they are some of the very real consequences for our coast if steps aren't taken to contain global warming. Those and other possible scenarios are outlined in the NC Coastal Federation's 10th annual State of the Coast Report, which was released Oct. 1 at a NCCF conference in Morehead City on climate change.
     "No other part of our state will be as affected by global warming as our coast," said Frank Tursi, the Federation's Cape Lookout Coastkeeper and the report's lead author. "It will change our weather, our landscapes and the animals and plants that live here. And it will do it in the span of a human lifetime. We could think of no better subject for our anniversary report."
     The report's release follows sobering articles on global warming that have appeared this summer in magazines as varied as Business Week and National Geographic. "Global warming is no longer the subject of an esoteric scientific debate," Tursi said. "Even the editors of business journals are beginning to understand that this is real and something we will have to deal with. It is the greatest environmental challenge we will face as a species."
     The State of the Coast Report attempts to paint a realistic picture of coastal North Carolina by the end of this century by tapping into the vast store of current research on global warming. Scientists now know a great deal more about its potential consequences. They have a better understanding of the workings of our climate, and the computer models they use to mimic its complexities are now quite sophisticated. Though many uncertainties still remain, the scientists and their computers can offer a range of reasonable possibilities about the future of our coast.
     It will be warmer, for sure, maybe as warm as it now is in central Florida. Computer models predict that the average daily temperature in the Southeast will rise by as much as 10 degrees by 2100. The experts NCCF consulted think a 4-degree rise is reasonable for North Carolina. Not since the end of the last Ice Age 15,000 years ago will temperatures have risen as quickly. Much of that warming, the expert explain, will occur in the winter and at night.
     Higher temperatures will trigger a range of cascading consequences from higher incidences of asthma, heat stroke and insect-borne diseases to a rising ocean that will reshape the NC coast and heighten hurricane damage.
     As the temperature rises, the ocean will warm and expand. Add water from melting glaciers, and sea level along the NC coast could rise as much as 10 inches by 2030 and three feet by 2100 – about three times the current rate. Although a foot or two of sea level rise may not sound like much, the effect could be severe, considering the coastal plain's uniform flatness. For example, models show that a 13.7-inch sea level rise would inundate about 770 square miles of the NC coast, an area nearly the size of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Short an engineering effort to rival the Dutch, much of the Outer Banks will likely be gone, swallowed by the rising seas.
     The easy way to deal with those kinds of gloomy prospects is to do nothing and hope for the best. The State of the Coast Report recommends a different course, and calls upon North Carolina to take a strong leadership role in addressing climate change issues.
     For, there are things North Carolina's leaders can do to at least better prepare our children and grandchildren for the future. We are entering a new era in the Earth's history, which will require bold, new thinking. The report recommends reshaping many of our coastal development rules to better prepare us for what's coming. Current tools such as the land-use plans required by the Coastal Area Management Act must finally provide coherent growth strategies that account for accelerated sea-level rise, more pronounced storm flooding and other consequences of global warming. If the current hurricane season is a preview of what's to come, disaster-relief policies that encourage unsafe development by merely picking up the broken pieces after each storm and putting them all back together will tax even the deep pockets of the federal government.
     "It's time to re-sharpen are coastal management tools to address global warming and its consequences," said Todd Miller, the Federation's executive director. "This means promoting ways to use coastal lands and waters that are more resilient to the damaging effects of climate changes. This is sound environmental policy even if global warming wasn't occurring."
     The State of the Coast Report can be downloaded from NCCF's website.